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Winning
Jul 12, 2018 9:46:36 GMT -5
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Post by bobathon on Jul 12, 2018 9:46:36 GMT -5
Consumer Price Index up almost 3% in the past year, highest rise since 2012. Stuff costs more.
And hourly wages have dropped 0.2% over that time. People have less money to spend on those now more expensive products.
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Winning
Jul 12, 2018 10:25:37 GMT -5
Post by minx on Jul 12, 2018 10:25:37 GMT -5
But I hear the unemployment numbers are at historic lows, so it's all good, right?
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Winning
Jul 12, 2018 11:03:37 GMT -5
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Post by bobathon on Jul 12, 2018 11:03:37 GMT -5
Sure, if you're black.
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Winning
Jul 12, 2018 11:17:16 GMT -5
Post by Dave's Not Here Man on Jul 12, 2018 11:17:16 GMT -5
Glad I wasn't sipping coffee.
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Post by Dave's Not Here Man on Jul 12, 2018 11:38:18 GMT -5
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Winning
Jul 12, 2018 12:38:54 GMT -5
Post by rally2xs on Jul 12, 2018 12:38:54 GMT -5
The service economy sucks, alright. But Trump is struggling mightily to change it back to a manufacturing economy. Part of that was the tax cuts that lowered the corporate tax rates from 35%, where they've been since WW2, to 21%. That's only about 6 months old, so needs more time to work. Keep hearing of steel mills opening because of the tax cuts and the projected tariffs. Stuff like that will make for more higher-paying factory jobs. I think the big advances in wages are in the near future. Right now, we have to be semi-content with the unemployment rates. People are working, cool, but we have to get 'em working at the right things, which have higher wages.
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Winning
Jul 12, 2018 13:06:14 GMT -5
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Post by bobathon on Jul 12, 2018 13:06:14 GMT -5
HEY, KOOOOL-AAIIIDDDD!!
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Post by minx on Jul 12, 2018 16:01:57 GMT -5
Well, to give Rally his due, there are some steel mills reopening. While this is good news, I also wonder what the average age of a steelworker is right now. I ask because the steel industry has been in decline for quite a while now. How long does it take to get a steel worker up to speed? Do they need any type of specialized training, and if so, are there still places who will do it?
While there is nothing inherently bad about doing service work (it's been my career after all), there is a lot to be said for being able to manufacture your own products if needed. However, I think that we as a country need to become more educated about what we export/import and why we do things that way. Much as people would like to cry "America First!" in reality, we have always been a part of a global economy from the time Europeans settled here - we imported lots of crap from England, Spain and France, and sent lots of shit back there too.
I would like to see a thoughtful analysis of what we really need to manufacture here, and the best way to do that. Next we need to take a hard look at what to do for these people who have been displaced from jobs that are no longer 'needed' here. If it's more economical to import steel from China, and helps us to produce more tractors, wouldn't it make sense to train steelworkers to make tractors instead, especially if we make more money from exporting tractors?
The problem with what the current administration is doing on all levels is that it's very scattershot. Yes, we can bring back Big Steel, but at what price to the family farm? If all the farmers go bankrupt because of these tariffs, what will they do for work? A small example, but an illustrating one.
While steel plants might be re-opening, how long will it take them to get to production and quality levels that meet the needs of other businesses that use steel? If I run a small manufacturing business and need steel next month, will I be able to get it at an affordable price? And if not, what will happen to my business if I can't deliver orders due to lack of steel, or have to double my prices due to tariffs on imported steel?
It's very easy for me to crab about having to pay $1 more per fork when I buy dinnerware, because I can afford the price hike, and I need dinnerware. My neighbor is on a fixed income, and can't afford a dime more, let alone a dollar. She'll just go without and use the old broken stuff instead. But she will also crab to others, until the message gets out that US fork is quite expensive! I found foreign fork at Amazon for much less, and I personally can't see a difference between the two!
And that Rally, is the problem in a nutshell. Trump can bring back all the steel jobs he wants, but if I can get a Chinese fork through WalMart.com or Amazon for less and I don't have big bucks, I'm getting the cheaper fork every time.
It's just like the farmer's market. The produce there is locally grown, fresh and probably produced with much fewer chemicals than store-bought produce, but why pay $2 for a single onion, when I can get a whole bag of them for $4 at Wegman's?
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Winning
Jul 12, 2018 16:27:21 GMT -5
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Post by bobathon on Jul 12, 2018 16:27:21 GMT -5
For the current administration and its’ followers everything is a transaction. Follow the mercantilism link, it’s seems to be how they think. Reality is, globalism is where it’s always been, as you note, even prior to Europe colonizing North America.
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Post by Dave's Not Here Man on Jul 12, 2018 16:34:27 GMT -5
Global trade is great until our country's consumers subvert the standard of living for it's working class by choosing goods made in countries with no standard of living, no environmental protections, no workplace safety rules, etc.
This goes full circle to the immigration issue that grinds my ass on a regular basis. Bringing jobs back here is great too, let's make some shit! But you can bet your bippy that a good many of the manufacturing jobs will be low level production/line work and guess who is going to be working for pennies on the dollar? Everyone.
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Winning
Jul 12, 2018 16:39:07 GMT -5
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k9krap likes this
Post by bobathon on Jul 12, 2018 16:39:07 GMT -5
And of course, there’s automation, more so at newer plants.
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Winning
Jul 13, 2018 8:21:29 GMT -5
Post by minx on Jul 13, 2018 8:21:29 GMT -5
I disagree John. Those jobs will advertise as entry-level, then demand at least 1 year of experience. That's the sad reality my kids faced. Eldest applied to be a registrar at MWH. Basically when patients come in, you type their information into the computer and scan their insurance cards. Requires you to have people skills, be able to be calm in a stressful situation and type information into a form. They told him that he didn't have enough 'clerical' skills during the interview. Mind you, they didn't give him any type of data entry or typing test, just based on the fact that he had never held a clerical job. Totally ridiculous.
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Post by Dave's Not Here Man on Jul 13, 2018 10:51:14 GMT -5
It's unclear to me what you disagree with. The healthcare industry is not manufacturing nor is it comparable to most industries in terms of how it employs people. Sure, there's a clerical side, an administrative side, and an accounting side, but all of that is done differently than in most other industries. Hopefully anyway, since there are literally millions of lives at stake.
Since I'm typing.....
Those manufacturing jobs used to a lot of union jobs. Union jobs in that sector meant trained/skilled labor and of course, higher wages + benefits + etc. which meant higher quality products and of course, higher prices on those products. Not to oversimplify, because I understand there are other factors involved there including materials and machinery that may come from elsewhere, and there's variants in acquiring them. So whether or not a return to manufacturing, which I won't believe it until I see it regardless since we're only talking about a few hundred or a few thousand jobs, not hundreds of thousands, will also bring back those REAL middle class jobs remains to be seen. I have a friend who used to work for Shockey Precast Concrete at their plant in Massaponax. I don't remember his exact job but he knew a ton of formulas so I'm guessing he had some engineering background. He didn't make quite 6 figures but did damn well okay for a guy from the back woods of Kentucky. Guess what happened to him in 2008-ish? Yep, that plant shut down. Buh Byah. He was out of work for a couple of years until CP&P, also local, got the contract for the HOT lanes on 95 and started hiring like crazy. Guess who CP&P was mostly hiring though? Guess how much of a pay cut he took for doing basically the same job, and without the benefits, just to have a job? See, it's not just that the carpenter or the laborer, the electrician or the helper, the bricklayer or the heavy equipment operator all have their wages take the hit, it goes all the way up until you are someone who matters, like the sharholders and CEOs.
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Winning
Jul 13, 2018 11:40:17 GMT -5
Post by minx on Jul 13, 2018 11:40:17 GMT -5
Sarcasm John, sarcasm.
I've worked with many people over the years who had a HS diploma and no other formal education. They started in a low-level job and worked their way up - one of them was my manager when I was pregnant with my first kid. Great person, very, very smart and an excellent manager. My BIL, who was a brilliant person, wanted to do genealogy research. Back in the day, having access to the back stacks at the Library of Congress was the gold standard of genealogical research. He got his HS diploma, and went to work for them as a clerk - his first job was to stamp each book with "Property of the Library of Congress" on it. When he died (cancer) he was pretty high up in their IT division and making 6 figures. Plus, he was a noted genealogist, and was hired by the Royal Court to do the genealogy of Princess Diana to prove that she had enough royal blood to be worthy of Charles. Had he lived, he probably would have done the same for Kate as well.
THAT is what we are missing today. There is no way that a data-entry clerk should need a college degree for example. The degree shouldn't disqualify you from the job, but it shouldn't be needed. Too many jobs want something that isn't really needed to do the job, and way too many places don't want to take the time needed to properly train someone. Then they complain that the workers they do get are 'unmotivated' or 'untrained'. Yeah, I'd be unmotivated as hell if you threw me in a situation where I didn't understand what I needed to do, and was getting bitched out all the time.
And yeah, gaining ground back when you've been laid off is almost impossible anymore. It's totally criminal, and bringing back 1500 steel jobs isn't going to fix things.
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Jul 13, 2018 14:21:18 GMT -5
Post by rally2xs on Jul 13, 2018 14:21:18 GMT -5
"But you can bet your bippy that a good many of the manufacturing jobs will be low level production/line work and guess who is going to be working for pennies on the dollar? Everyone."
But not forever. That is, there will come a point in our economic expansion that we will run out of, or run low on, even the most basic workers. DJT is working mightily on creating a labor shortage. TV News said within the last couple weeks that 600,000 have come off the couch and out from behind their TV sets showing them the soap operas, and actually started looking for work. That's because they have heard there are more jobs. There are. Will they get top dollar just to go to work. No, not yet. But ecentually, those on the couch will run low, we won't get 600,000 new workers into the labor force, and, finally, employers are going to have to scramble to find workers. What does scramble mean? It means paying some more $/hr to get the more soap-opera-addicted off their couches, as well as convincing you that the $X/hr you're getting for what you're doing now is nice but not as much as Acme Corp is paying their people to do exactly what you're skilled at while they crank out their defective roadrunner traps. Acme will get the workers they need when the more reluctant workers walk through their doors, or you do, and if you do, then your preasant employer now has a big problem because now THEY need help in a labor-scarce environment. What do they do? They start paying more for the exact same job you were doing. You could maybe even go back, but there seems to be some corporate mindset against raising workers' wages to keep them from leaving. Don't ask me on that one, but anyway, once the labor becomes sufficiently scarce, the wages are going to start rising.
Which is the reason to vote for DJT next time. For all this to happen, the gov't is going to have to keep up the pressure for making things in the USA, whether its tariffs or lowering corporate taxes so companies can make a buck by manufacturing here instead of China. Democrats win, and they will reverse the tax cuts, the tariffs, and tax you everything you make and then give you back enough to live in poverty. That makes you dependent on them for handouts, which is what they want. They can then better control you. That's also what they want. You _will_ pay fantastic prices for electricity to make it "green" and you _will_ live in dense housing with little or no yards for the kids to play because that is more "green" and you _will_ give up your car and ride mass transit to "conserve" and of course you _will_ give up (all) your gun(s) so they can do all that and you won't be able to mount a credible threat against them to stop them. Vote freedom, vote prosperity, vote Republican.
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Winning
Jul 13, 2018 14:39:03 GMT -5
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Post by bobathon on Jul 13, 2018 14:39:03 GMT -5
You are completely delusional and in a cult of personality. He’s your goddamned* messiah. Later, Kool-Aid.
*See what I did here?
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Jul 13, 2018 15:46:40 GMT -5
Post by rally2xs on Jul 13, 2018 15:46:40 GMT -5
You are completely delusional and in a cult of personality. He’s your goddamned* messiah. Later, Kool-Aid. *See what I did here? Other than also passing the FairTax, he's doing exactly what I would have done had I been in control.
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Winning
Jul 16, 2018 4:09:15 GMT -5
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Post by bobathon on Jul 16, 2018 4:09:15 GMT -5
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Post by No. 1 son on Jul 16, 2018 6:34:41 GMT -5
I would like to see a thoughtful analysis of what we really need to manufacture here, and the best way to do that. How about we produce goods that the world needs, instead of using 60% of our gnp to create chaos? We could lead the world in food, medicine, technology and water utilization and really make it a better place. What good does it do anyone if we import cheap steel if we just make weapons for export? We could again be world leaders through good will if we can just get control of the dark side. Inflation rate is creeping up again. These tariffs may not help that. This is for your forking research.
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Jul 16, 2018 9:23:47 GMT -5
Post by minx on Jul 16, 2018 9:23:47 GMT -5
I agree Larry. Totally agree.
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Jul 16, 2018 9:34:12 GMT -5
Post by Dave's Not Here Man on Jul 16, 2018 9:34:12 GMT -5
There's no profit in the cure Buddy Boy.
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Jul 16, 2018 10:28:37 GMT -5
Post by rally2xs on Jul 16, 2018 10:28:37 GMT -5
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Jul 16, 2018 10:44:55 GMT -5
Post by No. 1 son on Jul 16, 2018 10:44:55 GMT -5
To amend that, 60% of discretionary spending, which is about half of mandatory spending. Still a chunk of change, and I am not sure if this includes the black budget or foreign aid, which also can contribute. I apologize. There is room for improvement. This is from 2015, but it hasn't changed much percentage wise
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Winning
Jul 16, 2018 12:11:30 GMT -5
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Post by bobathon on Jul 16, 2018 12:11:30 GMT -5
rally, DoD budget is in the hundreds of Billions, with a B. Billions. Millions is penny ante, remember?
PS There are two sides to the budget. It sure is a good thing we will have less revenue to spend on frivilous things, we need what we have for the Department of War.
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Jul 16, 2018 16:31:37 GMT -5
Post by rally2xs on Jul 16, 2018 16:31:37 GMT -5
rally, DoD budget is in the hundreds of Billions, with a B. Billions. Millions is penny ante, remember? PS There are two sides to the budget. It sure is a good thing we will have less revenue to spend on frivilous things, we need what we have for the Department of War. Yeah, you're right. It's $600B - $700B. Sorry... brain fart...
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Winning
Jul 18, 2018 13:46:06 GMT -5
Post by rally2xs on Jul 18, 2018 13:46:06 GMT -5
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Winning
Jul 18, 2018 14:11:38 GMT -5
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Post by bobathon on Jul 18, 2018 14:11:38 GMT -5
And H-D and the nail makers and keg makers etc are firing people because of the Trump Tariffs. So remember that as the balances come due - there’s credit and there’s blame, and they both accrue to his actions. You don’t get to claim just the happy parts for Putin’s Puppy.
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Winning
Jul 18, 2018 15:34:01 GMT -5
Post by rally2xs on Jul 18, 2018 15:34:01 GMT -5
And H-D and the nail makers and keg makers etc are firing people because of the Trump Tariffs. So remember that as the balances come due - there’s credit and there’s blame, and they both accrue to his actions. You don’t get to claim just the happy parts for Putin’s Puppy. H-D announced that move back in Jan or Feb, way before the tariff question, so... try again. Haven't heard anything about nails and kegs, but making raw steel with domestic everything is way more important I think.
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Winning
Jul 18, 2018 15:59:50 GMT -5
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Post by bobathon on Jul 18, 2018 15:59:50 GMT -5
The current conditions are irrelevant, you just have to accept that Trump is to blame for any negative impacts of his actions. Can you grok that? I know that’s a stretch, seeing as he IS the Holy Messiah come down from on high. Also, I bet if a curious person googled “nail company firing” they might find something. Are you curious? Ignorance can be cured, Kool-Aid.
PS You know what else was planned waaaaaay before those tax cuts? Many of those bonuses Trump claimed credit for - which you might notice were bonuses and not actually salary increases, so they are a one time thing.
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Winning
Jul 19, 2018 13:18:57 GMT -5
Post by minx on Jul 19, 2018 13:18:57 GMT -5
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